Europe's best-performing blue-chip banal successful 2025 is wide expected to beryllium bought by a larger peer, successful a woody analysts accidental could beryllium worthy arsenic overmuch arsenic $23 billion.
Abivax, the French clinical-stage biotech institution processing a attraction for ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease, saw shares rocket 1,681% past year, acold outpacing the Stoxx 600 index's second-best performing stock, mining institution Fresnillo, which roseate 453%.
Now, the large question for analysts seems to beryllium when, not if, Abivax announces a deal.
The stock, listed successful 2015, mostly ranged betwixt 10 and 20 euros but it wasn't until 10 years aboriginal that it truly took off. Shares surged 510% successful a time aft Abivax reported the results of a late-stage proceedings for an ulcerative colitis medicine successful July, beating adjacent the astir optimistic expectations. After these kinds of results, it could beryllium a strategical acquisition for immoderate ample pharmaceutical institution with an immunology and inflammation franchise.
Abivax's pb – and lone – asset, obefazimod, was archetypal developed arsenic a attraction for HIV, but researchers discovered that its anti-inflammatory effect could impact different conditions similar inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and began objective trials.
Shares were boosted adjacent much successful December arsenic rumors emerged that the world's astir invaluable pharma company, Eli Lilly, had its eyes acceptable connected acquiring Abivax. Both companies person repeatedly declined to remark connected concern improvement activities.
An imminent deal?
Analysts accidental that a woody could hap immoderate clip now.
Van Lanschot Kempen expert Sebastiaan van der Schoot told CNBC that biotechs often "have a comparatively tiny fig of employees and don't person immoderate acquisition with selling a drug," which helium called "a wholly antithetic shot game" to processing them.
"That's wherefore pharma takes them retired to really leverage their infrastructure," helium said.
The expert added that helium expected Abivax to commercialized betwixt wherever it is present and wherever it was erstwhile rumors of a takeover archetypal surfaced, until the yearly JP Morgan Healthcare Conference connected Monday, where companies often denote ample deals.
Abivax shares surged successful 2025, acold outpacing European peers.
It comes arsenic Big Pharma has ramped up dealmaking successful caller months, arsenic the assemblage faces a looming patent cliff wherever immoderate of the world's best-selling drugs suffer exclusivity successful the coming years.
Another origin making a woody likelier is Abivax CEO Marc de Garidel's estimation arsenic a person who tin marque deals happen. He antecedently led multi-billion dollar buyouts of biotech firms to pharma players similar AstraZeneca and Novo Nordisk.
Asked astir a imaginable acquisition, de Garidel told CNBC's "Europe Early Edition" successful December that the institution was ever successful "conversation with Big Pharma" but that its relation was to make the champion imaginable drug.
Abivax is readying to record for regulatory support successful the U.S. by the extremity of 2026, eyeing a imaginable motorboat by the 3rd 4th of 2027, de Garidel said.
The institution is well-positioned to negociate a favorable woody with a Big Pharma partner, Stifel expert Damien Choplain said.
"Given the spot of the Phase III results and the scarcity of comparable assets, we judge a transaction could beryllium executed up of the attraction information readout expected successful Q2 2026," helium said, referring to a 2nd objective proceedings of Obefazimod which tests its efficacy implicit 44 weeks arsenic opposed to lone 8 weeks.
Choplain added that astir transactions successful the IBD abstraction person historically happened for cause candidates successful earlier stages of development. "Abivax ticks each the boxes for a strategical acquisition," helium said.
Based connected comparable transactions and a highest income estimation of 3 cardinal euros, Abivax's valuation could scope betwixt 12 cardinal euros and 20 cardinal euros ($14 cardinal to $23 billion), Choplain told CNBC.
Recent deals successful the IBD abstraction see Merck's acquisition of Prometheus for $10.8 billion; Roche's acquisition of Telavant for $7.1 billion; and Eli Lilly buying Morphic for $3.2 billion. Those deals were each for assets successful an earlier signifier of improvement than Abivax's obefazimod.
A imaginable best-in-class treatment
Jefferies expert Roger Song, who doesn't screen Abivax per se but tracks the IBD abstraction intimately from Boston, said that investors' optimism comes some from a multi-billion dollar imaginable marketplace for IBD treatments, arsenic good arsenic from the cause candidate's caller mode of addressing it done aggregate pathways.
It is adjacent considered to beryllium a imaginable best-in-class attraction for ulcerative colitis, helium told CNBC successful December.
The July results from the proceedings of Obefazimod amazed investors due to the fact that galore had not been alert of the novel mechanics it uses, micro-RNA, Song said.
A late-stage attraction proceedings is expected successful the 2nd 4th of 2026.
Van der Schoot added that, if Abivax is assured capable successful those attraction results, it tin hold to beryllium acquired aft the proceedings is published, "because past they tin inquire a higher price."
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