After Israel PM’s trip to occupied Syria, is a deal off the table?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s quality with Israel’s troops successful illegally occupied territory successful confederate Syria has angered Damascus, and raised further doubts implicit whether a information woody betwixt the 2 countries tin beryllium agreed.

Netanyahu’s Wednesday visit – accompanied by respective of his elder officials – signals that helium is not readying to displacement from his hardline presumption connected Syria, contempt encouragement from the United States.

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Israel seized territory successful the Syrian Golan Heights pursuing the 1967 warfare and has held it ever since. However, pursuing the autumn of ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad successful December 2024, Israel violated a 1974 statement and again invaded its neighbour’s territory, occupying much onshore on the borderline arsenic portion of a “buffer zone”, including the strategically captious acme of Mount Hermon.

Israel was already bombing Syria earlier the autumn of al-Assad, an state of its determination force Iran. But alternatively of seeking to commencement connected a caller way with Syria, Israel has doubled down connected its bombing run and accrued the fig of strikes this year, including successful the superior Damascus, starring to the deaths of respective Syrian soldiers and hitting the Ministry of Defence.

After the visit earlier this month of Syria’s caller President Ahmed al-Sharaa to Israel’s cardinal state successful the White House, US President Donald Trump, hopes were precocious that an statement could beryllium reached. Al-Sharaa has antecedently confirmed that nonstop talks with Israel were nether mode to unafraid a imperishable settlement.

But earlier this week, Israel’s Kan broadcaster quoted an unnamed Israeli authorities authoritative arsenic saying the talks were astatine a dormant end. So what went incorrect and why? And does Netanyahu’s travel to the occupied Syrian territory awesome that helium has nary volition to marque a deal?

What is Israel doing successful Syria?

When Israel’s tanks archetypal entered Syria successful December 2024, it expanded its territorial footprint wrong Syria by astir 400 quadrate kilometres (155 sq miles), including Mount Hermon, which offers a vantage constituent implicit confederate Syria and bluish Israel.

Netanyahu described the incursion arsenic a “temporary antiaircraft position”. However, arsenic clip has worn on, some Israel’s presumption connected the Golan Heights and its rhetoric person grown much entrenched, with Defence Minister Israel Katz saying successful March that Israel would proceed its concern of parts of Syria for an “unlimited magnitude of time”.

Israel has besides chosen to presumption itself arsenic the defender of the Druze and Kurdish taste minorities against a authorities it has attempted to overgarment arsenic “extremist”.

Why did talks interruption down?

Neither authorities has issued a connection connected wherefore the talks person stalled.

However, citing anonymous authorities sources, Israel’s nationalist broadcaster, Kan, has claimed that talks broke down aft Israel refused to retreat its troops from Syrian territory without what it called a “comprehensive bid agreement”.

Details of what Israel mightiness mean by a “comprehensive bid agreement” aren’t clear.

In September, leaked reports suggested that, arsenic portion of immoderate bid agreement, Israel was demanding that Syria found a demilitarised portion southwest of Damascus each the mode up to the borderline with Israel. This would encompass a immense territory, including the governorates of Suwayda, Deraa, and Quneitra.

In return, Israel would gradually retreat its forces from Syrian territory, isolated from those connected the acme of Mount Hermon.

But since then, it appears that Israel has hardened its stance, and reports successful Israeli media bespeak that the government’s presumption is that it volition not retreat from territory seized since December without a afloat bid woody with Syria – which is not connected the table.

The quality bureau Reuters besides reported that, astatine the past minute, Israel requested what negotiators termed a “humanitarian corridor”, allowing entree betwixt Israel and the heavy Druze populated confederate governorate of Syria’s Suwayda.

According to 1 source, a cardinal rule of the Israeli connection was maintaining an aerial corridor to Iran via Syria, which would let for aboriginal Israeli strikes connected Iran.

So, wherefore did Netanyahu and others sojourn the buffer zone?

Netanyahu told Israeli troops that their beingness wrong Syrian territory was of “immense importance”, adding that their intent determination was captious successful “safeguarding our Druze allies”, helium said.

Syria’s Druze number provided a pretext for Israel’s past deployment to Syria successful July, erstwhile Israel was accused of utilizing the struggle betwixt the radical and section Bedouins to empower number factions wrong the state arsenic rival powerfulness centres to the recognised authorities successful Damascus.

Expanding buffer zones with neighbouring states up of opening diplomatic channels oregon contributing towards reconstruction pursuing the often devastating attacks by its subject forces appears to person go a cardinal tenet of Israel’s determination strategy.

In Gaza, wherever Israel has killed astir 70,000 Palestinians, Israel is seeking to found an extended buffer zone arsenic portion of the US-imposed stabilisation woody that would trim the already drastically constricted abstraction disposable to the enclave’s post-war colonisation adjacent further.

In Lebanon, wherever it killed much than 4,000 radical during its penetration of October 2024, Israel has been accused of laying the groundwork to make a buffer portion wrong Lebanese territory, akin to that it is trying to found successful Gaza.

What did Syria and others accidental astir the visit?

The Syrian Foreign Ministry branded the sojourn “illegitimate” and “a sedate usurpation of Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”.

“This sojourn represents a caller effort to enforce a fait accompli that contradicts applicable United Nations Security Council resolutions and falls wrong the occupation’s policies aimed astatine entrenching its aggression and continuing its violations of Syrian territory,” a ministry connection read.

Other nations, including Jordan, France and Qatar, person besides condemned the Israeli premier minister’s visit, branding it a menace to determination stability.

In the UN, spokesperson Stephane Dujarric was besides critical of what helium called Netanyahu’s “very nationalist visit”, adding that it was “concerning, to accidental the least”.

Dujarric noted that UN Resolution 2799, precocious passed by the UN Security Council, “called for the afloat sovereignty, unity, independence, and territorial integrity of Syria”.

How mightiness this impact negotiations?

It looks to person acceptable them backmost and, to a degree, near Israel isolated.

On Wednesday, a elder UN authoritative urged Israel to halt its enactment successful the occupied Golan Heights, cautioning that its actions were stoking determination tensions.

Najat Rochdi, the UN lawman peculiar envoy for Syria, told the UN Security Council that Israel’s operations were weakening the 1974 statement establishing the buffer zone.

“I received a beardown entreaty from [Syria’s] Foreign Minister [Asaad] al-Shaibani for the UN to enactment to enactment an extremity to these violations,” she said, urging the UN Security Council to presume its responsibilities nether the 1974 agreement.

Israel’s main ally, the US, on with galore of the region’s powers, appears to person rejected Israeli characterisation of Syrian extremism.

Receiving al-Sharaa astatine the White House earlier this month, US President Trump praised the Syrian leader, saying, “We’ll bash everything we tin to marque Syria successful, due to the fact that that’s portion of the Middle East. We person bid present successful the Middle East – the archetypal clip that anyone tin retrieve that ever happening.”

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and different Gulf countries person besides been providing economical support to Syria since al-Assad’s ousting, with Saudi Arabia, a cardinal absorption of Israel and the US’s normalisation efforts, announcing a reconstruction programme arsenic precocious arsenic September.

What mightiness Israel’s eventual goals successful Syria be?

Israel appears to beryllium pursuing its modular playbook erstwhile dealing with its neighbours – usage force, inquire questions later, and garbage to compromise.

It knows it is the strongest subject powerfulness successful the region, but besides believes it faces existential threats, and truthful mostly does not privation to marque agreements that it believes volition payment rivals. In essence, Israel prefers to behaviour concern done unit of arms alternatively than deal-making.

As good arsenic maintaining its amerciable concern of Syrian territory, Israel has continued to inhabit Lebanese territory and motorboat attacks against its neighbour contempt entering into a ceasefire successful November 2024.

Speaking to Al Jazeera earlier this year, writer, researcher, and laminitis of The Fire These Times podcast, Elia Ayoub, said that “The Israelis judge that having weaker neighbours, arsenic successful states that aren’t truly capable to function, is beneficial for them because, successful that context, they’re the strongest actor.”

Whether that means dividing Syria, oregon simply retaining a ample buffer zone, is unclear – and volition possibly beryllium determined by however things cookware out.