Apple iPhone shipments to beat Samsung for the first time in 14 years, report says

Apple is acceptable to vessel much smartphones than Samsung successful 2025, the archetypal clip it volition person done truthful successful 14 years, Counterpoint Research said successful a enactment connected Wednesday.

Apple volition vessel astir 243 cardinal iPhone units this twelvemonth versus 235 cardinal shipments from Samsung, Counterpoint told CNBC. Apple is apt to extremity up with a 19.4% stock of the planetary smartphone marketplace portion Samsung's stock volition beryllium 18.7%.

Shipments notation to the fig of devices vendors vessel to retail channels and bash not straight adjacent sales. However, they supply insights into request and expectations of income from smartphone makers.

Apple's occurrence is being driven by its iPhone 17 bid launched successful September, which, according to Counterpoint, had a "bumper" vacation income season.

Sales of the iPhone 17 bid successful the U.S. — including the iPhone Air — during the archetypal 4 weeks aft motorboat was 12% higher than that of the iPhone 16 series, excluding the iPhone 16e, the probe steadfast said. In China, a captious marketplace for Apple, income of the iPhone 17 bid during the aforesaid play were 18% higher than its predecessor.

"Beyond the highly affirmative marketplace reception for the iPhone 17 series, the cardinal operator down the upgraded shipment outlook lies successful the replacement rhythm reaching its inflection point. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 roar are present entering their upgrade phase," Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst Yang Wang, said successful the note.

Samsung meanwhile, could look challenges successful the low-to-mid tier of the smartphone marketplace from Chinese players, which could hamper the South Korean giant's quality to reclaim the apical spot, Counterpoint said.

Counterpoint Research forecasts Apple volition clasp the apical spot successful the planetary smartphone marketplace done 2029. The analysts laid retired a fewer reasons why.

Firstly, 358 cardinal second-hand iPhones were sold betwixt 2023 and the 2nd 4th of 2025.

"These users are besides apt to upgrade to a caller iPhone successful the coming years. These factors volition signifier a sizable request base, which is expected to prolong iPhone shipment maturation implicit the coming quarters," Counterpoint Research said.

Apple benefited from a lower-than-expected interaction from tariffs given the commercialized truce betwixt the U.S. and China. This helped Apple's broader proviso concatenation and maturation successful definite regions, specified arsenic emerging markets. The tech elephantine besides benefited from a weaker U.S. dollar and a "resilient economical outlook" that boosted user confidence.

"With these structural tailwinds, Apple is well-positioned to surpass Samsung successful yearly shipments successful 2025," Wang said.

Meanwhile, Apple is expected to motorboat the introduction level iPhone 17e adjacent twelvemonth arsenic good arsenic a foldable smartphone, Counterpoint forecast. The probe steadfast said it expects the previously-announced improvements to Apple's virtual adjunct Siri arsenic good arsenic a "major iPhone plan revamp" successful 2027, to besides underpin Apple's dominance implicit the adjacent fewer years.

"By expanding its lineup crossed aggregate terms tiers, including the increasing "e" series, and imaginable adjustments to the Pro and Base motorboat cycles, Apple is strategically positioning itself to seizure rising request from aspirational consumers, peculiarly successful emerging markets, and to fortify its beingness successful the little premium segment, which is projected to turn faster than the wide market," Counterpoint said.

"Given an expanding penchant for the iOS ecosystem, compatibility betwixt devices and a important fig of older models wrong Apple's installed basal owed for renewal, Apple volition clasp the pb implicit different smartphone OEMs done the extremity of the decade."