CNBC's The China Connection newsletter: What's next after a 10-year 'experiment' with U.S.-China competition

For idiosyncratic who's witnessed the ups and downs of U.S.-China tensions since the 1990s, James Zimmerman is unexpectedly hopeful astir 2026.

This year, he's backmost for a 5th word arsenic president of the American Chamber of Commerce successful China, whose members see Boeing and Cargill. His archetypal stint came successful 2007 and 2008, erstwhile Beijing hosted its archetypal Olympic Games, and the fiscal situation deed overmuch of the world. He aboriginal served again successful 2015 and 2016, arsenic populist movements roseate globally and gave Donald Trump his archetypal word arsenic U.S. President.

Fast guardant a decade, and U.S. businesses person endured everything from the pandemic to escalating tariffs. But the past decennary of what Zimmerman calls "experimenting with competition" could present springiness mode to thing new, with Trump expected to sojourn China successful April.

Here are the highlights of our conversation, with responses condensed for clarity:

Why are you staying engaged astatine specified a precocious level, aft astir 30 years successful China?

The crushed I'm progressive is due to the fact that I deliberation this is simply a precise important year.

2026 is important, not conscionable due to the fact that [it's] the 250th day of the U.S., but the U.S. and China person had 10 years of experimenting with competition, experimenting with calls for decoupling and de-risking.

Has that worked? Not really. So it's present clip to spell backmost and, successful a mode that whitethorn beryllium visionary, to get america backmost connected way to person ongoing dialogues, ongoing engagement, due to the fact that I think, astatine the extremity of the day, that volition beryllium successful the champion involvement of the U.S. and China.

Are galore U.S. companies decoupling from China?

No. We're seeing an evolution. People are starting to adjust. For galore sectors, China continues to beryllium a captious market. But it's besides an indispensable portion of the planetary proviso chain.

American companies are adjusting to this caller mean wrong the U.S.-China relationship. But determination has been immoderate diversifying, and that's a steadfast strategy that companies are looking at, but we are not seeing wholesale decoupling astatine all.

It's important that we person senior-level meetings that bring immoderate clarity, immoderate certainty, immoderate continuity to the relationship.

Dialogue matters — adjacent the smallest, affirmative signals, astatine the statesmanlike level, connected engagement are very, precise important. Regular, ongoing engagement helps trim immoderate imaginable misunderstandings and lowers the hazard of unexpected argumentation shocks, like the back-and-forth implicit tariffs.

What benignant of accidental bash U.S. businesses person successful China arsenic home contention rises?

We person our achromatic paper, which, successful a way, allows america to prosecute with the Chinese authorities to question changes that are positive.

Protection of intelligence spot is not conscionable an contented for overseas companies. It's besides an contented for Chinese companies.

Both sides request to code down the nationalist information issues and not presumption each flimsy arsenic a nationalist information matter.

We can't person an situation wherever each foreigner is targeted arsenic a imaginable threat. And that goes some ways: erstwhile Chinese companies spell to the U.S., we can't instrumentality the presumption that it's a menace to the communities they privation to run in.

Is the CEO of the China operations losing power connected office successful the U.S.?

It's thing that needs further attraction post-pandemic. But that's thing that is conscionable a circumstance, particularly fixed what took spot during the pandemic, erstwhile question came to a halt.

But erstwhile you look astatine AmCham, the U.S.-China Business Council and the National Committee for U.S.-China Relations, there's present accrued involvement successful making definite CEOs, world leaders, arsenic good arsenic legislature leaders, question to [China to] recognize what the situation is each about.

We effort to promote much people-to-people exchanges. I'm going to beryllium retired and astir successful the community, emphasizing the value of acquisition arsenic good arsenic the arts. For example, I'm going to a performance astatine the Juilliard School successful Tianjin.

What's connected your docket astatine AmCham China for 2026?

In immoderate respects, we're focused connected April erstwhile President Trump is readying to travel to China. We're hopeful that AmCham volition beryllium capable to play a relation successful that. There is simply a absorption connected that, and I'm definite there's going to beryllium a batch of enactment starring up to that visit.

There'll beryllium immoderate agreements, immoderate understanding, possibly a memorandum of knowing that whitethorn travel retired of that.

We're not expecting a expansive bargain. There conscionable isn't capable time. It was past summer, and we were successful the mediate of a commercialized war. And lone since October, President Xi, arsenic good arsenic President Trump, met successful South Korea, person we started a process [around] let's meet, let's talk, let's support engaging.

So I deliberation we're connected the close track, but we'll conscionable person to spot the advancement betwixt present and April. But we're optimistic the signals volition travel retired positive. And again, immoderate level of assurance that tin beryllium received from those meetings, I think, is precise important to the concern community.

A batch of President Trump's predecessors were precise visionary astir what they viewed arsenic the aboriginal of U.S.-China relations.

And so, this year, we're hoping that President Trump volition besides beryllium visionary and question to determination the narration guardant successful a mode that mutually benefits some the United States and China, its companies, consumers, workers and farmers.

China condemns U.S. onslaught connected Venezuela. Beijing said it was "deeply shocked" by the U.S. onslaught connected Venezuela Saturday and called for the merchandise of person Nicolas Maduro and his wife.

BYD tops Tesla worldwide. The Chinese automaker officially sold more battery-powered electrical cars than Tesla successful 2025 — astatine 2.26 cardinal units.

Chinese companies deed Vegas. Many Chinese humanoid robotic and user electronics companies are successful Las Vegas this week to showcase their products astatine the Consumer Electronics Show.

Onshore Chinese stocks edged higher Wednesday, holding adjacent four-year highs arsenic Beijing continues to propulsion improvement of its artificial quality sector.

Goldman Sachs expects China's equity rally to proceed into 2026, though astatine a slower pace. The slope forecasts the MSCI China Index volition emergence 20%, portion the CSI 300 is seen gaining 12%, aft past year's 20% to 30% beforehand driven mostly by valuation expansion.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index slid implicit 1%, pressured by losses successful exertion and vigor shares. Alibaba fell 4%, BYD was down 3.38% portion PetroChina retreated 3.15%.

The show of the Shanghai Composite implicit the past year.

Jan. 8: Chinese AI institution Z.ai, formerly Zhipu AI, to list successful Hong Kong

Jan. 9: CPI and PPI for December

Jan. 14: Trade information for December (expected)