Colombia braces with alarm after Maduro’s removal in Venezuela by US

Medellin, Colombia – The shock removal of Venezuelan person Nicolas Maduro by the United States subject has triggered alarm successful bordering Colombia, wherever analysts pass of the anticipation of far-reaching repercussions.

The Colombian authorities condemned Washington’s aboriginal Saturday greeting attacks connected Venezuela – which included strikes connected subject targets and Maduro’s seizure – and announced plans to fortify its 2,219-kilometre (1,378-mile) eastbound onshore border, a historical hotbed of rebellion and cocaine production.

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Security analysts besides accidental Maduro’s deposition could aggravate an already deteriorating information concern successful Colombia, portion exile advocacy groups pass the state would carnivore the brunt of imaginable migration waves triggered by the fallout from the intervention.

The Colombian authorities held an exigency nationalist information gathering astatine 3am (09:00GMT), according to President Gustavo Petro.

“The Colombian authorities condemns the onslaught connected the sovereignty of Venezuela and Latin America,” wrote the president successful an X post, announcing the mobilisation of authorities forces to unafraid the border.

The ELN factor

The National Liberation Army (ELN), a left-wing radical and the largest remaining rebel unit successful the country, person been vocal arsenic precocious arsenic December successful its preparations to support the state against “imperialist intervention”.

Security analysts accidental the superior nationalist information hazard to Colombia pursuing the attacks stems from ELN, which controls astir the full borderline with Venezuela.

“I deliberation determination is simply a precocious hazard present that the ELN volition see retaliation, including present successful Colombia, against Western targets,” said Elizabeth Dickinson, lawman manager for Latin America astatine Crisis Group International.

The rebel radical is heavy progressive successful cocaine trafficking and operates connected some sides of the border; it has benefited from ties with the Maduro government, and US involution threatens the group’s transnational operations, according to analysts.

The ELN, which positions itself arsenic a bastion against US imperialism successful the region, had already stepped up unit successful effect to the White House’s threats against Colombia and Venezuela. In December, it ordered Colombians to enactment location and bombed authorities installations crossed the country, an enactment it described arsenic a effect to US aggression.

The Colombian authorities has ramped up information measures successful anticipation of imaginable retaliatory enactment by the ELN pursuing Maduro’s removal.

“All capabilities of the information forces person been activated to support the population, strategical assets, embassies, subject and constabulary units, among others, arsenic good arsenic to forestall immoderate attempted violent enactment by transnational transgression organisations, specified arsenic the ELN cartel,” work a connection connected Saturday greeting issued by Colombia’s Ministry of Defence.

‘Mass influx of refugees’

In summation to fears of accrued violence, Colombia besides stands to carnivore the brunt of immoderate migration situation initiated by a struggle successful Venezuela.

In an X station connected Saturday morning, Petro said the authorities had bolstered humanitarian provisions connected its eastbound border, writing, “all the assistance resources astatine our disposal person been deployed successful lawsuit of a wide influx of refugees.”

To date, Colombia has received the highest fig of Venezuelan refugees worldwide, with astir 3 cardinal of the astir 8 cardinal radical who person near the state settling successful Colombia.

The erstwhile question of wide migration successful 2019 – which followed absorption person Juan Guaido’s failed effort to overthrow Maduro – required a monolithic humanitarian cognition to house, feed, and supply aesculapian attraction to refugees.

Such an cognition is apt to beryllium adjacent much challenging now, with Colombia losing astir 70 percent of each humanitarian funds aft the Trump medication shuttered its USAID programmes successful the state past year.

“There is simply a existent anticipation of short-term colonisation movement, some precautionary and forced, particularly if instability, reprisals, oregon powerfulness vacuums emerge,” said Juan Carlos Viloria, a person of the Venezuelan diaspora successful Colombia.

“Colombia indispensable hole proactively by activating extortion mechanisms, humanitarian corridors, and asylum systems, not lone to respond to imaginable arrivals, but to forestall chaos and quality rights violations astatine the border,” added Viloria.

A further illness successful US-Colombia relations

Analysts accidental Maduro’s removal raises hard questions for Petro, who has been engaged successful a warfare of words with Trump since the US president assumed bureau past year.

The Colombian person drew Trump’s ire successful caller months erstwhile helium condemned Washington’s subject buildup successful the Caribbean and alleged a Colombian fisherman had been killed successful territorial waters. In response, the White House sanctioned Petro, with Trump calling him a “thug” and “an amerciable cause dealer”.

“Petro is irascible astatine the infinitesimal due to the fact that helium sees Trump and his threats nary longer arsenic empty, but arsenic existent possibilities,” said Sergio Guzman, Director astatine Colombia Risk Analysis, a Bogota-based information consultancy.

Indeed, Trump has connected aggregate occasions floated subject strikes against cause accumulation sites successful Colombia. However, experts accidental it is improbable the White House would instrumentality unilateral enactment fixed their historical practice with Colombian information forces.

Despite Petro condemning Washington’s involution successful Venezuela, helium antecedently called Maduro a “dictator” and joined the US and different nations successful refusing to recognise the strongman’s fraudulent re-election arsenic president successful 2024.

Rather than supporting Maduro, the Colombian person has positioned himself arsenic a defender of nationalist sovereignty and planetary law.

On Saturday, Petro called for an exigency gathering of the United Nations Security Council, which Colombia joined arsenic a impermanent subordinate conscionable days ago.

“Colombia reaffirms its unconditional committedness to the principles enshrined successful the Charter of the United Nations,” wrote the president successful an X post.

This communicative has been published successful conjunction with Latin America Reports.