Guinea elections: Who’s running and what’s at stake?

Four years aft subject person General Mamady Doumbouya led a coup that toppled the civilian authorities of the time and derailed the country’s fragile democracy, Guineans volition caput to the polls successful a Sunday ballot that volition apt not present immoderate surprises.

The young subject leader, known for his signature wraparound sunglasses, is wide expected to triumph the ballot connected December 28 and solidify his clasp connected powerfulness successful the resource-rich West African nation, arsenic cardinal absorption figures person been barred from participating.

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With a colonisation of 15 million, Guinea holds 1 of the world’s largest deposits of robust ore and is the starring exporter of bauxite – a cardinal constituent of aluminium. Doumbouya’s authorities is banking connected its immense mines, particularly the mega Simandou excavation – 1 of the largest robust ore projects successful the world, to make much jobs and gross successful the coming years. Diamond, golden and uranium deposits are besides abundant successful the country.

Doumbouya has gained immoderate enactment owed to caller policies that person boosted mining exports. However, the general’s detractors question his legitimacy, citing his erstwhile pledge not to tally successful elections, arsenic good arsenic his assorted bans connected protests and media.

The 2021 coup destabilised Guinea’s antiauthoritarian trajectory. After decades of coups and dictatorships, it was lone successful 2010 that Guineans voted successful the first, genuinely escaped and just elections since independency from France successful 1958. The coup besides caused suspensions from the African Union and sanctions from the determination Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) bloc.

Guinea’s superior is the coastal metropolis of Conakry. Most Guineans practise Islam (85 percent), portion others are Christians and animists (15 percent). The Fulani oregon Peul, Malinke and Soso are the largest taste groups, though determination are much than 2 twelve taste groups. The state is known for being the root of the Niger River, which flows done respective countries and empties into the Atlantic Ocean done Nigeria.

Mining vehicles run astatine the Simandou mine, 1 of the largest high-grade robust ore deposits, tally by Australian institution Rio Tinto and joint-venture partners SimFer successful the Nzerekore region, Guinea, connected November 4, 2025 [Luc Gnago/Reuters]

How does voting work?

About 6.7 cardinal eligible voters (those implicit 18 years) are registered for the elections. There are 23,662 polling stations.

The president volition beryllium elected by an implicit bulk ballot done a two-round system, for a seven-year term.

A precocious turnout is expected based connected the 87 percent of voters who turned up for a referendum held successful September. That ballot was mostly seen arsenic a trial of Doumbouya’s popularity, and much than 90 percent voted “yes” to a caller constitution that allows subject leaders to tally for office, extends the statesmanlike mandate from 5 to 7 years, and creates a senate, of which a 3rd of members would beryllium statesmanlike appointees.

Nine statesmanlike candidates person been cleared to run, though the large absorption challengers who stood a existent accidental were barred connected technicalities. None of the 8 absorption candidates has a coagulated governmental footing. Candidates took portion successful an evening bid connected authorities tv wherever they debated each other’s proposals weeks up of the vote.

Campaigns opened connected November 28 and closed astatine midnight connected December 25. Doumbouya mostly stayed disconnected the run trail, though his ministers travelled crossed the country, urging civilians and the subject to ballot astatine ample rallies that featured musicians and attracted young people. One backstage businessman besides held a carnival successful Conakry to enactment Doumbouya this week.

About 10,000 predetermination observers from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the European Union, the United Nations, the International Organisation of the Francophonie and respective different organisations volition beryllium present.

Who has been excluded?

Former premier curate and erstwhile main challenger Cellou Dalein Diallo speaks astatine the Press House successful Dakar connected September 24, 2020, during an invitation by the overseas media successful Senegal. The person was barred from the December 28 elections [Seyllou/AFP]

Cellou Dalein Diallo, 73

Diallo, a longtime absorption leader, was going to beryllium Doumbouya’s astir formidable challenger. The erstwhile premier curate (2004-2006) heads the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG). He contested the 2010 and 2015 elections but was beaten by Alpha Conde, his archrival, connected some occasions. When the coup leaders seized powerfulness successful 2021, Diallo welcomed the determination and pledged his willingness to enactment with them successful restoring democracy.

However, Doumbouya’s authorities launched corruption proceedings against him successful narration to the merchantability of Air Guinee, the nationalist carrier, backmost successful 2002, erstwhile Diallo was transport minister. Diallo, who accused the subject ruler of a witch-hunt to artifact him from elections, has since been forced into exile successful neighbouring Senegal and successful France. In August, his enactment was 1 of 3 suspended due to the fact that documents they submitted had “substantial deficiencies”, according to the Ministry of Territorial Administration, which is successful complaint of the elections, arsenic opposed to an autarkic elections commission. Diallo was besides disqualified based connected his residency, arsenic the caller constitution adopted successful September requires that statesmanlike candidates person their superior residence successful the country.

Guinea’s then-president Alpha Conde laughs arsenic helium addresses a league successful Berlin, Germany, connected November 19, 2019 [John MacDougall/Reuters]

Alpha Conde, 87

Conde’s determination to tally for a 3rd word successful 2021, aft serving 2 five-year terms, threw Guinea into chaos and led to the September coup.

A longtime hostile of subject regimes successful the country, Conde promised to fortify ideology upon his predetermination successful 2010, aft polls that, contempt being turbulent, were besides a accidental for the state to depart from decades of dictatorship. He was the archetypal Guinean president to beryllium elected successful a escaped election. His authorities oversaw improvements successful the mining assemblage and managed the 2014 Ebola epidemic, but is besides accused of gross corruption and mismanagement.

In March 2020, helium pushed done a referendum that allowed him to question 2 much terms, claiming it reset his limit. The determination led to wide protests crossed the state that turned convulsive arsenic the constabulary and service attempted to unopen them down, starring to dozens of deaths. The elections successful October 2020 were held amid the turmoil, and astatine slightest 30 radical were killed during the polls. In September 2021, Conde was deposed and arrested by a radical of soldiers led by Doumbouya, whom helium had appointed successful 2018 arsenic caput of the elite Special Forces Group. He is believed to beryllium successful exile successful Turkiye. Conde’s Rally of the Guinean People (RPG) was 1 of the parties suspended successful August due to the fact that it had “not fulfilled the obligations required,” according to the authorities.

Sidya Toure, 80

The erstwhile premier curate (1996-1999) is different well-known absorption fig who has been sidelined. He came 3rd successful the historical 2010 elections with 13 percent of the vote. Toure is the person of the Union of Republican Forces (UFR). He has lived successful exile successful the Ivory Coast for respective years and was disqualified from the elections based connected his overseas residency.

Who is running?

Guinean person Mamady Doumbouya waves aft submitting his candidacy astatine the Supreme Court up of the statesmanlike predetermination scheduled for December 28, successful Conakry, Guinea, connected November 3, 2025 [Luc Gnago/Reuters]

General Mamadou Doumbouya, 41

The incumbent is the wide favourite to triumph the elections and is accused by absorption parties and activists of utilizing the ballot arsenic a powerfulness drawback to unafraid and legitimise his rule.

Doumbouya took powerfulness successful the September 2021 coup, deposing then-president Alpha Conde aft months of hostility and protests. He promised to extremity the chaos and instrumentality the state to antiauthoritarian rule.

The determination ECOWAS bloc has pressured Doumbouya to contiguous a accelerated modulation timeline. The subject ruler initially promised an 18-month transition, but past remained mostly uncompliant, missing 2 deadlines. However, ECOWAS, portion keeping up pressure, has not been overly critical. Doumbouya has remained unfastened to staying successful the bloc, dissimilar his compatriots successful Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, who, nether unit to clasp elections aft their coups, rebuffed ECOWAS by leaving the confederation and creating a caller national successful January. ECOWAS is wary of antagonising Doumbouya and perchance causing Guinea to articulation the rival alliance.

Doumbouya’s authorities has, since 2022, banned protests, restricted section quality organisations, and targeted activists successful arrests, according to section quality reports and civilian nine groups. A week earlier the elections, authorities besides blocked Facebook.

Supporters of the subject ruler accidental helium has boosted infrastructure, with much than 2,250 kilometres of caller roads built, schools renovated, and caller hospitals built. They besides constituent to the motorboat of the mega Simandou robust ore excavation project, which saw its archetypal robust ore exports this year, 30 years aft it was licensed to operate.

The task has attracted planetary interest. Analysts accidental that’s partially wherefore Western governments, with whom Doumbouya has maintained a affable stance adjacent arsenic Conakry ramps up commercialized with China, are cautious not to criticise his clasp connected power.

With run posters of the smiling Doumbouya splashed crossed Conakry’s streets and successful the metropolis of Kankan, his governmental stronghold, the president has promised to amended the infrastructure gains successful the past 4 years. He has besides pledged to physique amended antiauthoritarian institutions; combat corruption; boost wellness and acquisition access; and enactment women and youth. He is moving nether the Generation for Modernity and Development, oregon GMD movement.

Others are:

• Aboulaye Yero Balde – a erstwhile acquisition curate nether Alpha Conde and ex-World Bank economist. Balde is moving nether the Front for Democracy successful Guinea (FRONDEG).
• Makale Camara – the lone pistillate campaigner and president of the Front for National Alliance (FAN) party. She has promised amended entree to h2o and electricity, and wants to diversify the system beyond mining. She was a erstwhile overseas curate from 2016 to 2017.
• Faya Millimono – the caput of the Liberal Bloc party. He was captious of Conde and initially supported the subject coup, but has since antagonised Doumbouya.
• Ibrahima Abe Sylla – the erstwhile vigor curate nether the subject government, is moving nether the New Generation for the Republic party. He antecedently ran successful 2010 and 2020.
• Abdoulaye Kourouma – the 2020 statesmanlike campaigner and erstwhile parliamentarian, is moving nether the Rally for Renaissance and Development party.
• Mohamed Nabe – an electoral adept who has formed portion of determination electoral missions. He volition tally nether the Alliance for Renewal and Progress party.
• Elhadj Bouna Keita – a erstwhile subordinate of parliament, helium leads the Rally for a Prosperous Guinea (RPG).
• Mohamed Cherif Tounkara – is moving arsenic an autarkic candidate.

What are the cardinal issues?

Campaign posters of Guinean person and statesmanlike campaigner Mamady Doumbouya are acceptable up on a road, up of the statesmanlike predetermination scheduled for December 28, successful Conakry, Guinea, connected December 21, 2025 [Souleymane Camara/Reuters]

Mining and the economy

Guinea remains a mediocre state contempt its immense mineral wealth. Literacy levels are debased and astir fractional of the moving colonisation is unemployed, according to the International Labour Organization.

Much anticipation for alteration hinges connected restructuring successful the mining assemblage to unlock lucrative deals for the country. The Simandou mine, which Chinese and Australian firms ain stakes in, is of peculiar importance, arsenic Doumbouya’s authorities is banking connected it to supply capable wealth to bankroll much infrastructure and amenities. The archetypal shipment from the mines near for China aboriginal successful December, aft a recently constructed railway allowed for ore to beryllium transported retired of the distant Simandou highlands to the larboard of Conakry. While galore Guineans are hopeful astir the proceeds, determination are besides fears that persistent authorities corruption could drain the revenue. Many are besides acrophobic astir the destiny of the thousands of operation workers employed astatine the excavation erstwhile gathering projects are complete.

Justice for September 28 stadium massacre

In 2009, erstwhile subject person Moussa Dadis Camara, who seized powerfulness successful 2008, oversaw the massacre of protesters who gathered successful their tens of thousands astatine a stadium successful Conakry to telephone for antiauthoritarian rule. Camara’s forces opened occurrence connected the demonstrators successful an effort to suppress them. Many were shot, portion others were crushed successful the ensuing stampede. At slightest 156 radical were killed, and 109 women and girls were raped during the massacre. It was 1 of the country’s astir tragic events.

Many Guineans person agelong hoped for justness and a proceedings against Camara, who fled to Burkina Faso aft a coup and assassination effort months later. Doumbouya’s authorities launched a 22-month-long proceedings against him, and a tribunal convicted Camara and 7 of his subject commanders successful July 2024. Rights groups hailed the verdict arsenic a historical infinitesimal for justice. Camara was handed a 20-year sentence, and helium and the others were ordered to wage compensation to the victims of the massacre. However, this March, conscionable a twelvemonth later, Doumbouya pardoned Camara connected alleged wellness grounds – to the disappointment of victims and rights campaigners.

Although the authorities has taken connected the task of compensation, with a archetypal signifier of reparations nether way, there’s a lingering feeling among galore victims that justness has not been afloat served.