Is the Eastern Mediterranean becoming Israel’s new front against Turkiye?

Two meetings, held astir simultaneously towards the extremity of December, offered a stark illustration of the competing strategical visions present shaping the Eastern Mediterranean and the Levant.

In Damascus, Turkiye’s foreign, defence and quality chiefs met Syrian officials connected December 22 arsenic Ankara continued to prioritise the consolidation of authorities authorization and stabilisation aft the autumn of Bashar al-Assad’s authorities successful Syria.

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On the aforesaid day, Israel hosted Greece and Cyprus for the latest iteration of their trilateral framework. Two days before that meeting, Israel launched different air attack connected Syria – 1 of much than 600 strikes successful 2025 – a reminder to Ankara and Damascus that Israel is consenting to disrupt Syria’s betterment from war.

While officially framed astir vigor practice and determination connectivity, the trilateral docket betwixt Israel, Greece and Cyprus has steadily expanded to encompass information coordination and subject alignment, signalling a displacement from economical contention to strategical containment.

For Cem Gurdeniz, a retired admiral and 1 of the architects of Turkiye’s “Blue Homeland” maritime doctrine that calls for Ankara to safeguard its interests crossed the surrounding seas – the Aegean, Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea – the gathering was an effort “to exclude and encircle Turkiye”.

Gurdeniz describes Israel’s attack arsenic an indirect containment strategy aimed not astatine confrontation but astatine altering Ankara’s behaviour. “The nonsubjective is not war, but behavioural alteration – narrowing Turkiye’s strategical abstraction to induce withdrawal without conflict,” helium told Al Jazeera, informing against treating the standoff arsenic regular vigor competition.

A representation showing Eastern Mediterranean states: Turkiye, Cyprus, Israel and Greece [Al Jazeera]

For Israel, the trilateral model reflects unease with Turkiye’s attack successful Syria, which prioritises territorial integrity and the restoration of cardinal authorization – an result that runs antagonistic to Israel’s penchant for a fragmented determination information landscape.

Greece and Cyprus, meanwhile, presumption the concern arsenic a means to beforehand maritime bound claims and vigor corridors that would marginalise Turkiye’s relation successful the Eastern Mediterranean.

Security and subject practice present signifier a cardinal pillar of the trilateral agenda, according to Muzaffer Senel, a visiting student of European studies astatine Marmara University.

“All 3 actors person sought to make faits accomplis done unilateral initiatives successful the portion successful what they jointly comprehend arsenic a communal rival: Turkiye,” Senel told Al Jazeera successful notation to imaginable information and vigor arrangements betwixt the 3 countries that could endanger Ankara’s interests.

Israel’s gambit

The determination to clasp the trilateral gathering successful Israel was not incidental. It reflected the shrinking diplomatic abstraction disposable to the Israeli enactment arsenic the genocidal warfare connected Gaza deepens Israel’s planetary isolation.

With Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing an apprehension warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC) for warfare crimes and crimes against humanity, his quality to question overseas has go progressively constrained, peculiarly to countries that are signatories to the court, specified arsenic Greece and Cyprus.

The Greek government, portion not rejecting the ICC’s warrant for Netanyahu – which besides includes 1 for Israel’s erstwhile defence minister, Yoav Gallant – has said that “these decisions bash not help”. Cyprus has besides noted that the ICC warrants are binding. Neither has publically said that they volition not execute the warrants.

Hosting the Greek and Cypriot leaders successful Israel was truthful not simply a logistical choice, but a grounds of however ineligible and diplomatic pressures are reshaping Israel’s outlook and pushing it towards security-centric alliances.

At the aforesaid time, the gathering served to recast Turkiye arsenic a determination occupation done coded Ottoman references and narratives of expansionist ambition, aimed astatine eroding Ankara’s interests successful the Eastern Mediterranean.

Standing alongside Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides, Netanyahu – a longtime advocator of a Greater Israel – warned that “those who fantasise they tin re-establish their empires and their dominion implicit our lands” should “forget it”, a remark wide interpreted arsenic a notation to Turkiye.

As a peninsular state, Turkiye has much than 8,300km (5,100 miles) of coastline. Greece argues its Aegean islands, galore of which prevarication conscionable disconnected the Turkish coast, make their ain exclusive economical zones (EEZ), extending maritime claims up to 200 nautical miles (about 370km).

(Al Jazeera)

Ankara rejects this, saying islands cannot make afloat EEZs and that borders should beryllium drawn from the mainland.

Cyprus is different flashpoint. After a Greek Cypriot coup successful 1974, Turkiye intervened arsenic a guarantor power, splitting the island. Turkiye is the lone state to recognise the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. In 2004, the northbound backed a United Nations reunification plan, but the Greek-administered southbound rejected it, leaving the struggle unresolved.

In the Eastern Mediterranean, these determination wedge issues person fixed Israel an accidental to insert itself and further inflame tensions.

Greece, successful particular, has sought to leverage Israel’s adjacent ties with Washington to unafraid diplomatic backing successful longstanding maritime bound disputes.

“Greece seeks to impact the US done Israel successful bid to summation diplomatic backing for resolving Eastern Mediterranean maritime bound issues,” said Senel. Those disputes – involving state exploration rights besides claimed by Turkiye – person agelong fuelled determination tensions and present signifier portion of a broader effort to constrain Ankara’s strategical country for manoeuvre.

While nary ceremonial corporate defence statement has been signed, high-level practice among the 3 states is moving beyond advertisement hoc coordination towards a much institutionalised information framework. The inclusion of the United States arsenic a “like-minded partner” nether a alleged 3+1 format, Senel noted, “clearly conveys a strategical connection directed astatine Turkiye”.

Although the trilateral mechanics stops abbreviated of a ceremonial subject alliance, its trajectory points towards deeper information and defence cooperation, reinforcing Ankara’s cognition of an emerging containment axis successful the eastbound Mediterranean.

Emerging anti-Turkiye axis

Relations betwixt Greece, Cyprus and Israel person not been hindered by Israel’s genocidal warfare connected Gaza, which began successful October 2023.

Unlike respective different European Union states that person described Israel’s run successful Gaza arsenic genocide oregon taste cleansing and called for sanctions implicit violations of planetary law, Greece and Cyprus person remained mostly soundless portion expanding practice with Israel.

“In the existent context, wherever the Greek Cypriots volition presume the presidency of the Council of the EU, and astatine a clip erstwhile the EU is ignoring Turkiye’s geostrategic presumption and importance, uncovering diplomatic pathways to alleviate the tensions is simply a hard task,” said Zeynep Alemdar, overseas argumentation programme manager astatine the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies successful Istanbul.

“EU officials bash not recognize the communal benefits of including Turkiye successful the vigor and defence calculations of the region,” Alemdar told Al Jazeera.

In December, Greek parliamentarians approved the acquisition of 36 PULS rocket artillery systems from Israel for astir $760m.

The 2 countries are besides advancing towards a large defence statement estimated astatine $3.5bn, nether which Israeli defence firms would conception a multi-layered aerial defence strategy for Greece.

In September 2025, Cyprus besides received an Israeli-made aerial defence strategy costing tens of millions of dollars, with further deliveries expected.

“Turkiye volition surely effort to dilute this conjugation done diplomacy with its Middle Eastern allies, yet Israel’s disruption volition continue. Israel’s and Turkiye’s interests successful the portion volition bring astir much confrontations,” noted Alemdar.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkiye “will not let violations of its rights successful the Aegean and the Mediterranean”, without naming the 3 countries oregon referring straight to their meeting.

Rear Admiral Zeki Akturk, the property and nationalist relations advisor and spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence, sought to downplay the trilateral meeting, noting that it “does not airs a subject menace to Turkiye”.

Turkiye, for its part, has besides embarked connected its largest naval procurement process, with a terms tag estimated astatine astir $8bn and 31 ships successful the process of being built successful 2025 unsocial to support its interests successful the Eastern Mediterranean.

The process has mostly been driven by skirmishes betwixt Greece and Turkiye dating backmost to 2020, erstwhile some parties utilized naval assets to laic assertion to conflicting economical zones, and erstwhile Ankara realised it needed to put much successful its navy to debar being squeezed retired of the Eastern Mediterranean.

Turkiye’s determination approach

Analysts are besides informing that Turkiye’s calibrated effect to the trilateral gathering risks underestimating a broader signifier of Israeli provocations crossed aggregate theatres.

From Syria to the Eastern Mediterranean – and, much recently, Somalia, pursuing Israel’s designation of the breakaway Somaliland portion – Israel has demonstrated a willingness to exploit governmental fractures successful ways that undermine authorities consolidation.

In Syria, this attack has been peculiarly disposable and feeds into Israel’s policies successful the Eastern Mediterranean. The Israeli bombing of the statesmanlike palace and the Ministry of Defence successful Damascus successful July past twelvemonth was wide seen arsenic an effort to weaken the Syrian authorities astatine a infinitesimal of renewed diplomatic engagement.

Turkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned successful December that the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) were “in coordination with Israel” to obstruct Syria’s stabilisation.

A caller Al Jazeera Arabic investigation obtained hours of leaked audio recordings of elder subject officers from the authorities of the ousted person al-Assad, discussing plans to destabilise Syria and suggesting coordination with Israel.

Taken together, Israeli actions successful Syria progressively lucifer a template for indirect unit – not aimed astatine nonstop confrontation with Turkiye, but astatine constraining Ankara’s power by entrenching instability on its confederate flank.

In seeking to grind down Turkiye successful Syria portion advancing its naval strategy successful the Eastern Mediterranean, “the effect is simply a dual-pressure exemplary that exhausts and distracts Turkiye, turning each determination into a imaginable situation and steadily eroding its initiative”, said the retired Turkish admiral Cem Gurdeniz.

Israeli designation of Somaliland apt reinforces Turkiye’s interest that Israel is consenting to legitimise breakaway coastal entities erstwhile doing truthful undercuts stabilisation efforts aligned with Turkiye’s maritime interests.

This attack besides finds enactment wrong Israel’s ideological ecosystem. The right-wing governmental theorist Yoram Hazony, a adjacent state of Netanyahu, has openly argued for the fragmentation of determination states specified arsenic Iraq and Syria into smaller entities organised on sectarian oregon communal lines – a imaginativeness that aligns with policies privileging part implicit consolidation.

“Turkiye should halt treating this arsenic episodic friction and dainty it arsenic Israel’s deliberate effort to signifier the post-Assad bid successful Syria portion tightening a Mediterranean alignment that sidelines Ankara,” Andreas Krieg, subordinate prof of information studies astatine King’s College London, told Al Jazeera.

“The effect needs to beryllium practical, coercive successful the governmental sense, and geared to results alternatively than signalling,” helium added.

Turkiye has a way grounds of acting proactively erstwhile it believes its nationalist interests are astatine stake. In Libya, Ankara’s military support for the internationally recognised authorities successful 2020 prevented its collapse. Similarly, Ankara’s backing of Azerbaijan successful its warfare with Armenia helped extremity the balance, enabling Baku to recapture territory occupied by Armenian forces.

Israeli threats to destabilise Syria, Somalia and Yemen could supply Ankara with an opening with countries it has had rocky relations (since improved) with successful caller years, chiefly Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which progressively are besides threatened by Israeli power successful the portion and person astir precocious condemned Israeli designation of Somaliland.

Ankara should not lone grow relations with specified cardinal Arab states, Krieg said, it besides needs to instrumentality applicable steps that marque “alternative formats commercially and strategically attractive”.

“Turkiye volition not dismantle that [Eastern Mediterranean] axis with rhetoric,” helium added.

“Ankara should exposure and disrupt Israeli power operations alternatively than arguing astir motives,” helium warned, adding that “the constituent is to marque it politically costly for Israel to posture arsenic a stabiliser portion acting arsenic a patron of breakaway structures,” said Krieg.

“The strategical hazard for Turkiye is gradualism; [Ankara’s] nonsubjective should beryllium explicit: forestall a imperishable Israeli information carve-out successful confederate Syria and forestall an Eastern Mediterranean bid successful which Ankara is boxed in,” Krieg concluded.