It’s not the oil. It’s Florida

On Saturday, United States subject forces carried retired a melodramatic onslaught successful Venezuela that resulted successful the seizure and forcible removal of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. They were flown to New York and are present successful national custody. Maduro appeared successful national tribunal connected cause and weapons charges and pleaded not guilty. Several governments, planetary ineligible experts and United Nations officials person described the subject cognition arsenic an amerciable “kidnapping” and a breach of planetary law. The UN secretary-general warned that it sets a “dangerous precedent”, undermining foundational norms of sovereignty nether the UN Charter.

Yet, arsenic Washington justifies its cognition chiefly with rhetoric astir lipid and narcotics, a deeper inspection reveals different dynamic: This was archetypal and foremost an ideological battle, shaped by home governmental incentives successful the US – successful peculiar the strategical power of Florida’s electorate and its governmental elite.

Oil is not the premier motive

The mainstream communicative frames Venezuela’s tremendous lipid reserves – officially among the largest proven successful the satellite astatine astir 298 cardinal to 303 cardinal barrels – arsenic the halfway strategical prize. But a closer, evidence-based investigation shows the contiguous economical rationale to beryllium weak.

US crude imports from Venezuela, erstwhile significant, person dwindled to astir 220,000 barrels per time (bpd) arsenic of 2024, representing little than 4 percent of US crude imports. By contrast, imports from Canada dominate, accounting for astir 60 to 63 percent of US crude import needs, and US accumulation of airy crude has risen sharply, reducing dependence connected overseas sources. This displacement undermines claims that Venezuelan lipid unsocial is simply a strategical imperative.

Why does Venezuelan crude substance astatine all? The reply lies successful its composition. Venezuelan lipid is dense and sour, the benignant that galore US Gulf Coast refineries were designed to process. This, however, reflects refinery configuration alternatively than immoderate compelling contiguous strategical case. Furthermore, Venezuelan lipid infrastructure has deteriorated implicit years of underinvestment with output falling from astir 3.5 cardinal bpd to astir 1 cardinal bpd by 2025, and a meaningful revival would necessitate galore years of sustained and accordant investment. Markets reacted lone modestly to the seizure of Maduro with planetary lipid prices remaining comparatively stable, suggesting that lipid was not the main operator of the operation.

Not drugs either: Pretext vs reality

US officials person cited cause trafficking and “narcoterrorism” arsenic portion of the justification for the intervention. Maduro and different elder Venezuelan officials are indicted successful the US connected charges linked to alleged cocaine trafficking, and these accusations person been reiterated successful court. However, probe by planetary agencies and autarkic analysts suggests that, portion Venezuelan territory is utilized arsenic a transit route, it is not a large root of the drugs entering the US, which are overwhelmingly produced and trafficked done Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. This spread betwixt the standard of the cause commercialized and the rationale invoked has led galore analysts to presumption the narcotics statement arsenic a pretext alternatively than a superior operator of the operation.

Florida, ideology and home governmental incentives

A much persuasive rationale emerges erstwhile the home governmental incentives shaping US overseas argumentation are examined, peculiarly the relation of Florida’s electorate and elite networks. With 31 electoral votes, Florida remains a pivotal authorities successful statesmanlike elections, wherever constrictive margins mean adjacent humble shifts among cardinal constituencies tin find nationalist outcomes.

This governmental world is reinforced by Florida’s ample and politically mobilised Latino communities. Cuban American voters person agelong prioritised anti-communist overseas argumentation positions portion Venezuelan American communities, galore of whom settled successful the authorities implicit the past decade, person expressed beardown absorption to authoritarian leftist governance successful Caracas. Political scientists enactment that these constituencies represent a important voting bloc successful intimately contested elections, giving governmental elites beardown incentives to follow hardline positions against leftist regimes that resonate with these voters.

At the centre of this dynamic stands Marco Rubio, the US caput of authorities and a Florida autochthonal whose governmental biography is profoundly rooted successful absorption to leftist governments successful Latin America. Rubio’s household fled communist Cuba, and helium has consistently championed confrontational policies towards socialist and authoritarian regimes successful the region. Reports suggest that, during negotiations, Maduro offered concessions connected lipid and economical matters that could person been commercially beneficial, but advisers aligned with Florida’s governmental interests reportedly pushed for a harder line, prioritising ideological confrontation implicit economical pragmatism.

Florida’s governmental ecosystem besides includes influential donor networks that person historically supported hawkish overseas argumentation positions, including well-organised pro-Israel constituencies with leverage astatine authorities and nationalist levels. In caller months, high-profile visits by Israeli leaders to Florida and sustained engagement with US governmental figures person reinforced ideological alignments that framework regimes perceived arsenic hostile to Israel oregon aligned with its adversaries arsenic challenges requiring decisive responses. The convergence of electoral incentives, ideological commitments and elite networks helps explicate wherefore US argumentation towards Venezuela has been shaped arsenic overmuch by home governmental drivers arsenic by outer strategical interests.

Lessons for the Middle East

The implications for Middle Eastern actors are profound.

First, planetary instrumentality appears weakened. The US seizure of a sitting caput of authorities without multilateral authorisation underscores a willingness to sidestep planetary ineligible norms erstwhile home governmental imperatives are prioritised. The ineffectiveness UN Charter’s prohibition connected the usage of unit absent Security Council support oregon wide self-defence appears to person been discounted, eliciting global concern.

Second, the Middle East’s strategical relevance persists, albeit successful an evolving context. While planetary vigor markets are little babelike connected Middle Eastern lipid than successful anterior decades, different factors – superior flows, counterterrorism cooperation, strategical geography and enduring information partnerships – support the region’s importance. Intensifying US-China contention and Washington’s interest implicit person China-Middle East ties volition apt proceed to anchor US engagement successful the region. Israel, for its part, is expected to prolong robust lobbying efforts successful Washington and European capitals to sphere its strategical relationships.

Yet the Venezuela occurrence illustrates that alliances predicated chiefly connected vigor information tin beryllium fragile and ideological and home governmental drivers tin abruptly reshape overseas argumentation priorities. Middle Eastern states must, therefore, prosecute a calibrated diplomatic strategy: engaging the US wherever interests converge portion hedging against abrupt shifts driven by interior governmental calculations.

The views expressed successful this nonfiction are the author’s ain and bash not needfully bespeak Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.