Supreme Court tariff ruling: It's not just about refunds. Volume of U.S. freight trade could hinge on decision

The looming U.S. Supreme Court determination connected the legality of galore of President Donald Trump's tariffs has companies connected borderline arsenic they eye imaginable refunds, but the ruling besides could rapidly power the measurement of commercialized to the U.S. up of Chinese New Year, according to logistics experts.

The freight manufacture successful the U.S. has been successful a rate recession owed to little instrumentality volumes aft companies frontloaded products to soften the interaction of tariffs. The pulling guardant of freight altered the accepted highest play of shipping instrumentality question successful 2025.

If the tariffs implemented nether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are ruled to beryllium amerciable by the Supreme Court, imports to the U.S. whitethorn emergence arsenic companies consciousness much assured astir their currency concern and question an opening to buffer inventory up of immoderate revised tariff plan from the Trump administration, which officials said volition beryllium acceptable to spell and execute its existing commercialized goals.

"If the IEPPA tariffs were to beryllium removed from each imported goods, determination would surely beryllium an summation successful imports," said Paul Brashier, vice president of planetary proviso concatenation for ITS Logistics. "Especially for goods precocious being sourced successful higher-tariffed countries," helium said.

The Supreme Court determination could beryllium issued arsenic aboriginal arsenic Wednesday astatine 10 a.m. ET.

While Trump's commercialized warfare hasn't slowed Chinese commercialized with different nations — it conscionable reported a grounds $1.2 trillion commercialized surplus — planetary water instrumentality volumes to the U.S. tracked by SONAR amusement a 14% alteration twelvemonth implicit year. The higher tariffs forced immoderate businesses to tally with leaner inventories, with the driblet successful Chinese commercialized the astir severe. Project44's January Tariff Report estimates U.S. imports from China fell 28 percent year-over-year, while exports to China dropped 38 percent successful 2025. "This marked 1 of the sharpest bilateral commercialized contractions successful caller history," Project44 noted successful its report.

The Supreme Court determination comes astatine a captious clip of twelvemonth for proviso concatenation absorption decisions wrong companies due to the fact that factories unopen down successful China for a period successful February for the Lunar New Year. Orders for the transportation of outpouring and summertime freight request to beryllium placed aboriginal to guarantee the products permission the factories to beryllium delivered successful clip to the U.S. The clip framework for companies to spot manufacturing orders for Lunar New Year is typically astatine the extremity of December oregon the opening of January, to debar the slowdown successful accumulation of their imports. According to SEKO Logistics, the accumulation slowdown begins 3 to 4 weeks earlier Lunar New Year, arsenic workers statesman to commencement leaving the factories to caput home.

This year, the Lunar New Year falls betwixt February 17 and March 3.

"If the Supreme Court does regularisation the tariffs illegal, this volition perfectly interaction orders with an accrued request for bookings for 3 reasons," said Brian Bourke, main commercialized serviceman for SEKO Logistics. "First, the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday. Second, we afloat expect different tariff provisions to beryllium used, but determination are limits and implementation timelines that volition promote companies to 'beat the clock' again, and 3rd is the expected infusion of aboriginal currency to money these purchases." 

If the tariffs are ruled illegal, the Court of International Trade has the ineligible authority to necessitate refunds are paid to U.S. importers and clasp jurisdiction implicit claims for refunds for a two-year statute of limitations period. At the aforesaid time, the Trump medication has said if the Supreme Court rules against it, determination is already a program successful spot to instrumentality tariffs utilizing different ineligible provisions.

Smaller companies would beryllium expected to enactment first. "Small and medium-sized businesses indispensable commencement ordering aboriginal compared to the larger businesses due to the fact that of their readying and smaller staff," said Eytan Buchman, CMO of Freightos. "The tariffs are sucking the beingness retired of them due to the fact that of the deficiency of stableness successful their proviso concatenation planning. There is excessively overmuch uncertainty."

Based connected its investigation covering five years of Lunar New Year ordering data, Freightos would expect a surge of orders from tiny and medium-sized businesses to footwear successful precise soon if a ruling against Trump's tariffs is issued.

"Normally, we spot a monolithic spike successful importer enactment 3 to 4 weeks up of Chinese New Year," said Buchman. "This means U.S. tiny and medium-sized businesses person until January 20 to program their shipment."

A recent survey from Freightos indicates that tiny and medium-sized businesses won't each needfully statesman resourcing from China. Respondents said if the tariffs were ruled amerciable by the Supreme Court, they would broaden their planetary sourcing basal and measure high-quality, lower-cost suppliers successful caller regions without tariff-related outgo penalties. Others mentioned they would determination accumulation backmost to China.

A caller CNBC Supply Chain survey showed determination was nary bump successful further orders from China successful November oregon December aft a trade truce betwixt the 2 nations was announced connected October 30, contempt expectations by logistics managers determination could beryllium a surge successful caller orders. The existent concern of thin inventories wrong the U.S. proviso concatenation tin beryllium seen intelligibly successful commercialized information aft the holidays. Warehouse inventories tracked connected the Logistic Managers' Index amusement a beardown contraction successful warehouse inventories by 17.4% period implicit month.

"Right now, determination is simply a definite magnitude of defeatism due to the fact that they consciousness worse disconnected than a twelvemonth ago. They privation to beryllium capable to program their proviso chain," Buchman said.

But not each players wrong the proviso concatenation are convinced that the Court's determination volition beryllium a large plaything origin successful commercialized volumes to the U.S. IMC Logistics tells CNBC it is seeing beardown volumes from Asia to the West Coast and does not foresee a diminution successful volumes arsenic retailers, manufacturers, and wholesalers are actively restocking aft a robust vacation season. "Import volumes person continued to show spot done the extremity of the twelvemonth and into January 2026," said Brian Kobza, IMC's main commercialized officer.

Kobza added that due to the fact that of the clip it takes for orders to beryllium made and past question crossed the ocean, immoderate interaction connected higher instrumentality volumes would not beryllium seen for astir 45 days. "We bash not judge the ruling volition interaction full import volumes either mode based connected however commercialized reacted successful 2025," helium said.

"If the Supreme Court overturns the tariffs, determination whitethorn beryllium a tiny bump, but thing melodramatic appears to beryllium coming," said Alan Baer, CEO of OL USA.