Syria’s challenges to rebuild its armed forces

Syria is inactive facing galore challenges a twelvemonth aft the toppling of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Among the cardinal priorities for the caller authorities is rebuilding its nationalist service and information forces.

For decades, Syria’s information apparatus and the subject were considered by galore arsenic a brutal unit to support the authorities and ace down connected dissent.

The caller interim authorities has begun the restructuring and recruiting process, focused connected rebuilding the equipped forces and adopting a caller doctrine wherever loyalty is to the country.

“We started the process of restructuring our subject and service … and we are gathering the request of the infinitesimal by having an service that Syria deserves arsenic a federation to gathering an service that represents Syria and is capable to look the challenges,’’ Defence Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra said during a ceremonial for soldiers graduating from a subject academy successful the metropolis of Aleppo.

Syrian service soldiers basal connected their armoured unit carriers during a parade [Hussein Malla/AP Photo]

“We volition make each branches of the equipped forces and summation our subject preparedness and ratio to support our nation. And we already issued rules of behaviour and discipline,” Abu Qasra said aft attending a subject march by recently graduating candidates showing disconnected their camouflage azygous and subject vehicles and rifles.

But analysts pass that the process of rebuilding could beryllium agelong and difficult, fixed the challenges that prevarication up – not slightest among them changing the mentality of equipped groups and transforming them into portion of an organised, nonrecreational army.

And among the main issues is vetting the ample fig of recruits to the country’s recently formed information forces, deciding whether to proceed with Russian equipment, integrating forces from confederate Syria and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) successful the northeast, and gathering the spot of the country’s galore number groups.

The occurrence of the Syrian equipped forces would spell a agelong mode to providing governmental stableness successful the country, and, with it, imaginable overseas concern and enactment for the authorities successful Damascus.

“If Syria fails to integrate each equipped forces and erstwhile absorption groups into its army, it faces an existential situation of fragmentation and disintegration,” Caroline Rose, manager of subject and nationalist information priorities astatine the New Lines Institute, told Al Jazeera.

“Without unification wrong its service and ongoing sectarian division, the state risks predominant information flashpoints – infighting betwixt antithetic equipped groups and its equipped forces – that could enactment Syria backmost connected the way to civilian war,” Rose explained.

Vetting

When the al-Assad authorities collapsed connected December 8, 2024, truthful did its information apparatus and equipped forces. Many abdicated and fled to neighbouring countries, immoderate hid successful their homes, and others turned successful their weapons and subject IDs to the caller authority.

In the archetypal hours aft al-Assad fled, Israel besides began widespread aerial attacks astir the country. On December 10, the Israeli subject said successful a connection that it had destroyed 80 percent of Syria’s strategical subject capabilities. In the past year, Israel attacked Syria more than 600 times.

“With Israel having destroyed overmuch of Syria’s accepted land, aerial, and naval subject instrumentality successful the archetypal days aft al-Assad’s fall, on with the information that the caller medication has purged galore regime-era officers and soldiers from its ranks, the caller Syrian Army is, successful galore ways, starting from scratch,” Rose said.

Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa has dissolved the erstwhile army. His group, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which controlled the state of Idlib for years during Syria’s gyration and was the main warring unit that toppled al-Assad – on with other, smaller groups – makes up astir 40,000 fighters.

With those numbers, the authorities would conflict to govern the entirety of Syria.

President al-Sharaa appointed subject commanders and merged respective anti-Assad factions into the caller information apparatus and military. The Ministry of Defence present oversees the Syrian Armed Forces, portion the Ministry of Interior oversees interior information forces specified arsenic the General Security. They besides opened up recruitment to the wide population, bringing successful tens of thousands of caller faces, which, according to analysts, brings 2 large problems.

The archetypal was the breakneck velocity of recruitment, owed to the request for manpower, which meant vetting was sidelined. Thousands of young men successful the 18-23-year-old property scope sought these positions, astatine least, successful part, due to the fact that they were among the fewer economical prospects aft years of sanctions, unfastened conflict, and authorities pilfering destroyed Syria’s economy.

“It’s a precise delicate equilibrium to support Syria’s information glued together,” Samy Akil, a nonresident chap astatine the Tahrir Institute, told Al Jazeera.

“It’s not astir recruiting only; it’s astir the merger of truthful galore factions and nary due vetting process. I americium definite aft the one- oregon two-year benchmark, they tin beryllium much selective successful the recruitment processes.”

Also, a cardinal occupation for Syria’s caller rulers is the contented of overseas fighters who played an integral portion wrong galore factions that fought against the al-Assad regime.

Western powers, including the US, had issued wide warnings to Damascus: No country for overseas fighters successful immoderate cardinal subject positions. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa said connected aggregate occasions that those fighters volition not presume cardinal positions and ‘’will not airs immoderate threat’’ to their countries.

The different large issue, according to analysts, is that determination are inactive tens of thousands of officers oregon noncommissioned officers (NCOs) with subject grooming who are improbable to beryllium integrated into Syria’s caller information apparatus.

The Syrian defence curate has said that the service welcomed astir 3000 regime-era soldiers backmost into its ranks aft vetting. But analysts estimation that determination is inactive a shortage of precocious and mid-level subject officers with some accepted and irregular battlefield experience.

A study by the Washington, DC-based Middle East Institute quoted a Syrian subject authoritative arsenic saying that astir 70,000 Alawite officers and NCOs were successful the Syrian service nether al-Assad and were highly improbable to beryllium reinstated. Battle-hardened, military-capable men not serving successful the country’s subject could besides airs a occupation to Damascus.

On December 5, the Reuters quality bureau reported that Rami Makhlouf, a billionaire and al-Assad’s cousin, and Syria’s ex-intelligence main Kamal Hassan “are spending millions of dollars successful competing efforts to physique warring forces that would pb a revolt on Syria’s seashore (al-Assad’s erstwhile stronghold)”. US media reports besides indicated that Makhlouf is bankrolling a unit made up of much than 160,000 Alawite and erstwhile service soldiers to revolt against the government.

Russia oregon the US

In the precocious years of al-Assad’s reign, Syria had go isolated internationally. Russia and Iran were among the fewer remaining allies, and analysts accidental that without them, al-Assad would not person been capable to enactment successful powerfulness arsenic agelong arsenic helium did.

But aft al-Assad fled to Moscow successful the aboriginal hours of December 8, Syria’s presumption successful the planetary assemblage rapidly changed. Syria nether al-Sharaa has gained important enactment from countries similar Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which had antecedently opposed al-Assad, portion Iranian-Syrian relations were severed.

In November, al-Sharaa became the archetypal Syrian president to visit the White House, signalling warming ties betwixt his state and the United States. But contempt Russia’s enactment of al-Assad and providing him refuge, relations with the caller Syrian authorities are not wholly shattered.

“The biggest situation the SAA faces is that it is fundamentally a Russian unit successful its doctrine and equipment,” Rob Geist Pinfold, a student of planetary information astatine King’s College London, told Al Jazeera.

“This means that whenever they request spare parts oregon much stock, it’s Russian instrumentality that they presently request to buy.

“This not lone gives Russia immoderate leverage implicit the government; it besides creates problems for Syria-US relations, since the Trump medication wants to pry Damascus distant from not conscionable Tehran but Moscow arsenic well,” Geist Pinfold added.

Fighters from the caller Syrian service march with rocket-propelled grenade launchers during a parade [Omar Sanadiki/AP Photo]

In summation to subject equipment, a fig of determination and planetary actors are moving to bolster the Syrian military’s capabilities, analysts said.

“The US is astir surely playing a relation successful bolstering the Syrian Army’s intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) abilities done predominant quality exchange,” Rose, from the New Lines Institute, said.

“With Syria present successful the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, we should expect the US to foster a person information relationship, sending advisers for grooming and guidance arsenic Syria faces a imaginable resurgence from ISIS cells.”

In summation to the US, Turkiye signed a bilateral defence woody with Syria successful August to supply training, advisory and method enactment to the Syrian Armed Forces. Under the deal, 49 Syrian cadets (10 army, 18 navy and 21 aerial force) started undergoing grooming successful Turkish academies, according to reports successful Turkish media.

Integration and minorities

But adjacent with planetary support, Syria’s information forces inactive request to physique home legitimacy and summation trust.

Security forces were reportedly progressive successful sectarian massacres on Syria’s coast and successful the confederate portion of Suwayda. These incidents gained planetary attraction but besides eroded spot successful the subject among galore wrong the country.

“Opinion polls suggest astir Sunni Arab Syrians inactive spot the service and the government. But number communities bash not,” Geist Pinfold said.

“For these groups, the SAA [Syrian Arab Army] is little an service and much a sectarian militia; they not lone deliberation it doesn’t support them but is actively retired to undermine their ain interests and safety.”

That deficiency of spot besides extends to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which power the country’s northeast. On March 10, the SDF and Damascus signed a woody to integrate SDF forces into the Syrian subject earlier the extremity of 2025. Yet, tensions betwixt the 2 sides are increasing and astatine times descending into clashes.