Trump's playbook on Greenland, Venezuela, and Iran is about taking on China, analysts say

In 10 days, Donald Trump captured the Venezuelan president, spooked European leaders with speech of annexing Greenland, and imposed 25% tariffs connected anyone trading with Iran. The communal thread whitethorn beryllium America's determination to situation China and its dominance of captious minerals.

By deposing Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro and taking implicit the country's lipid industry, the U.S. tin curb Chinese entree to important resources and mining investments. By annexing Greenland, it could support rivals retired of emerging commercialized routes and, potentially, mining of minerals. By tariffing anyone trading with Iran, arsenic protests endanger the endurance of its regime, the U.S. tin penalize some the Middle Eastern state and China for buying lipid from it.

"The transportation present is the U.S.-China rivalry, and to a lesser grade U.S.-Russia strategical frictions," Dan Alamariu, main geopolitical strategist astatine Alpine Macro, told CNBC implicit email.

"The U.S. simply doesn't privation either China oregon Russia – oregon Iran for that substance – operating retired of Venezuela. It doesn't privation Chinese economical power successful Greenland, portion it wants to antagonistic Russian pushes into the Arctic. And it wants to weaken Iran and Venezuela, which are Beijing and Moscow friendly."

Russia and China person been attracted to Greenland by the warming of the Arctic, which is melting the crystal expanse and making the island's captious minerals progressively viable, Guy Kioni, the CEO of Missang, a consultancy, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" connected Jan. 12.

As a result, governmental and commercialized involvement successful the self-governing Danish territory has increased successful caller years. Critical minerals are needed for everything from EVs to aerospace and defense, portion caller commercialized routes successful the Arctic have besides emerged successful what's been dubbed the Polar Silk Road.

Washington is determined to contradict specified "strategic locations" and resources to its rivals, Alamariu added.

China has a near-monopoly connected uncommon earths. It controls 60% of the world's mining and much than 90% of processing capacity, per the International Energy Agency.

At the moment, the state has an "untapped advantage," Kioni said. "Without energy, that vantage past reduces," helium said, noting that annexing Greenland would besides springiness the U.S. entree to abundant greenish vigor and assistance it "come to equilibrium China." 

Kioni added that U.S. actions against 2 countries that some supply lipid to China — Venezuela and Iran — are intended to constrain its vigor supply, and processing uncommon earths is vigor intensive.

Venezuela's inexpensive lipid – of which up to 50 cardinal barrels are expected to travel to the U.S. – whitethorn past assistance Washington unafraid its ain processing capabilities.

Building processing capableness for uncommon earths is much important to the U.S. than mining them, Alamariu said. "Greenland is important successful this context, but not make-or-break." He added: "To beryllium a large power, a state needs to person inexpensive power."

"Neither Venezuela nor Iran are large uncommon earths producers, though some are evidently large vigor ones," Alamariu said, adding they some person "not insignificant" mining industries.

China is besides heavy invested successful mineral-rich Africa. However, the continent's region from the U.S. and existing Chinese beingness whitethorn support it from being a U.S. target, according to Kioni.

"Greenland is wholly different. They are geographically adjacent the U.S., and that's wherefore it's important for the U.S., not lone to partner, but besides to person power implicit the territory," helium said.

The U.S. created a captious mineral model with the Democratic Republic of the Congo successful December. A akin 1 for Greenland could beryllium an outcome of Wednesday's talks betwixt Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Danish leaders representing Greenland, Kioni said.

Australia and Malaysia person besides signed deals with the U.S. connected captious minerals, but allies volition apt beryllium watching events successful Greenland closely.

So far, the markets person mostly shrugged disconnected threats to usage subject force. Doing truthful against different NATO member would marque American allies question the benefits of alignment, including countries successful Asia, Alamariu said.

"What is the payment of an state that asks for parts of your territory? Were this pursued, it would severely weaken U.S. planetary power, arsenic it volition apt pb to nonaccomplishment of large allies," helium said

Moving against Venezuela was besides astir removing "non-American powers from the Western Hemisphere," Alamariu said, arsenic is agitating to annex Greenland, though that is "potentially acold much risky and highly controversial."

Iran is farther away, but China is its apical trading partner. Trump's hard enactment connected Iran is partially astir the Mideast lipid – "and China does import a important stock of its vigor from the Persian Gulf" – but besides astir its atomic and rocket capabilities, enactment for movements the U.S. designates terrorists, its thrust for determination hegemony, and its longstanding enmity with the U.S., Alamariu said.

"The information that Iran is geopolitically person to Russia and China is different reason," helium added.

He said that the U.S.-China rivalry was "the main thread" betwixt Trump's actions, adding this is "increasingly defining the geopolitical and geoeconomic environment. We unrecorded successful an emerging bipolar world."

But, portion the U.S. seeks to incorporate oregon antagonistic Chinese influence, it is not seeking nonstop struggle with Beijing, Alamariu said, adding that détente and summits betwixt Presidents Trump and Xi are wide expected to hap this year.

An easing of tensions is inactive possible, helium added. However, the announcement of tariffs connected Iran's trading partners could force China to choose betwixt entree to the American marketplace and its state and "scuttle" governmental dealmaking betwixt the 2 superpowers.

Laura D. Taylor-Kale, a erstwhile adjunct caput of defence for concern basal policy, who is present a elder chap for Geoeconomics and Defense astatine the Council connected Foreign Relations, said tariffs whitethorn beryllium a mode for Washington to trim Beijing's rare-earths leverage successful commercialized negotiations.

"I don't deliberation that the President enjoys having others person leverage implicit him successful negotiations, and truthful the determination to beryllium overmuch much autarkic and to person some the mining and the processing capabilities, either home oregon with adjacent allies and partners, decidedly would be, I assume, beryllium a portion of that," she told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" connected Jan. 13.

"How agelong volition it take? That's a antithetic question," she added