Why Israel’s recognition of Somaliland backfired

Israel’s designation of Somaliland connected December 26 had small to bash with the long-standing aspirations of communities surviving successful the breakaway portion of Somaliland successful northwest Somalia. It was, instead, a merchandise of shifting geopolitics and a rapidly fragmenting planetary order. An contented erstwhile confined to the margins has since been pulled into the centre of determination and planetary powerfulness rivalries.

The Horn of Africa and the Red Sea corridor, anchored by the Bab al-Mandab Strait, 1 of the world’s astir captious maritime chokepoints, person go arenas of aggravated competition. Israel, the Gulf countries, Turkey, Egypt, Ethiopia, Eritrea and China are each present profoundly engaged. Within this context, Israel’s designation of Somaliland signals thing broader: the increasing usage of secessionist movements arsenic disruptive instruments of geopolitical strategy crossed the Middle East and the Horn of Africa.

What immoderate experts describe arsenic an “Axis of Secession” is already disposable successful Libya, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia and Syria. Led by Israel and supported by a web of determination partners, this axis targets countries whose cardinal governments, hollowed retired by conflict, workout lone partial power implicit their territory. The logic is simple: weaken cardinal authority, bolster breakaway regions, and cultivate babelike entities consenting to align with Israel and motion onto the Abraham Accords.

For Israel, these emerging lawsuit polities connection strategical footholds successful volatile regions. From them, it tin show rivals, task power, unafraid cardinal maritime routes and grow quality networks. Over time, Israel besides hopes this strategy volition coerce “mother states” into reluctantly joining the Abraham Accords themselves. Yet this attack carries a contradiction. Rather than consolidating the accords, it risks destabilising the portion further and eroding their legitimacy. Saudi Arabia, agelong regarded by Washington and Tel Aviv arsenic the eventual prize of determination normalisation, has taken the pb successful assembling a concerted effort to artifact the Axis of Secession.

The scramble for the Red Sea

Beyond broader geopolitical rivalries, Israel’s designation of Somaliland is intimately tied to contention implicit entree to the Red Sea. The Bab al-Mandab Strait, which links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, carries astir 10 percent of planetary trade. Control implicit ports and coastlines on this way confers outsized leverage implicit planetary commerce. Somaliland’s agelong coastline has truthful go a strategical prize. By recognising Somaliland, Israel seeks to entrench itself wrong the Horn of Africa’s strategical geography.

This contention was evident successful January 2024, erstwhile Ethiopia signed a arguable Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland, offering governmental designation successful speech for entree to the sea. For Ethiopia, the world’s astir populous landlocked country, the woody carried evident strategical appeal. Yet it proved short-lived. In December 2024, pursuing Turkish-brokered talks successful Ankara, Somalia and Ethiopia agreed connected a model that reaffirmed Somalia’s sovereignty and pointed to oversea entree arrangements nether Somalia’s authority, signalling a retreat from the earlier recognition-for-access logic. The occurrence highlighted some the fragility of specified arrangements and the strength of the geopolitical contention surrounding Somaliland’s status.

China has besides go an progressively progressive player. Somaliland’s determination to cultivate ties with Taiwan inevitably drew Beijing’s attention, fixed China’s strict adherence to the “One China” argumentation and its presumption of immoderate engagement with Taipei arsenic a nonstop challenge. At the aforesaid time, China has consistently supported Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, utilizing its diplomatic and economical leverage to antagonistic what it sees arsenic destabilising secessionist dynamics. Beijing is present moving to dissuade cardinal determination actors, including Ethiopia, from recognising Somaliland.

For China, the Horn of Africa is not lone astir ports, shipping lanes and mineral resources. It is besides astir preventing the dispersed of separatist precedents and countering moves that could embolden Taiwan. The effect is an progressively crowded and volatile theatre, wherever planetary powerfulness rivalries intersect with unresolved section aspirations.

The caller Middle East confederation and Somalia’s choices

Israel’s designation of Somaliland has accelerated a wider realignment successful the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, erstwhile adjacent partners, are present progressively astatine odds, portion Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt person begun coordinating to antagonistic what they presumption arsenic a destabilising “Axis of Secession”.

This displacement was archetypal acceptable successful question by the beforehand of the Southern Transitional Council successful Yemen, which announced a modulation towards declaring an autarkic state, and was past sharply reinforced by Israel’s designation of Somaliland. For Saudi Arabia, these developments represented a nonstop menace to its sphere of power and nationalist security. In response, Riyadh has taken the pb successful assembling a caller determination alignment that brings unneurotic Turkey, Egypt and Qatar to propulsion backmost against secessionist movements and their outer sponsors.

Each subordinate of this emerging confederation brings chiseled concerns. Egypt fears that recognising Somaliland would embolden Ethiopia, with which it remains locked successful a bitter quality implicit the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Turkey, which has invested heavy successful Somalia’s information and economical sectors for much than a decade, sees authorities fragmentation arsenic a nonstop situation to its strategical interests successful the Horn of Africa. Saudi Arabia views the Axis of Secession arsenic an existential danger, opening successful Yemen, wherever secessionist advances straight undermine its security. Together, these states are positioning themselves arsenic defenders of sovereignty and determination cohesion, portion besides coordinating diplomatic efforts to dissuade Washington from pursuing Israel’s lead.

For Somalia, the implications are stark. Anchoring its overseas argumentation wrong this emerging confederation is nary longer a substance of penchant but of urgency. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and Qatar each person a nonstop involvement successful preserving Somalia’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and governmental independence. Yet Somalia’s outer relations has excessively often been erratic, marked by mixed signals and interior contradictions. At a infinitesimal of existential threat, hedging betwixt competing blocs is nary longer viable. Somalia indispensable urgently recalibrate its diplomacy, utilizing its geostrategic value to forge durable and credible partnerships.

Equally captious is the request for home governmental cohesion. With parliamentary and statesmanlike elections scheduled for May, the Federal Government of Somalia indispensable enactment to physique statement among cardinal governmental stakeholders connected unresolved and divisive issues, including the arguable 2024 amendments to the Provisional Constitution and the model for credible elections. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has truthful acold shown constricted willingness to compromise. Failure to unafraid urgent home statement risks creating openings for Israel and its determination proxies to exploit Somalia’s interior divisions.

Somaliland’s paradox

Ironically, Somaliland’s pursuit of planetary designation whitethorn person been undermined by its reliance connected Israel. Israel’s planetary standing, already severely damaged by its genocide successful Gaza, has made designation by Tel Aviv politically toxic crossed overmuch of the Arab and Muslim world. Rather than advancing Somaliland’s case, the relation risks deepening its isolation.

The determination besides carries home consequences. A important conception of Somaliland’s colonisation opposes normalising relations with Israel, peculiarly amid wide claims that Israel is exploring resettlement of Palestinian refugees from Gaza in Somaliland — an allegation the enactment of the breakaway portion denies. Instead of consolidating sovereignty, Somaliland present faces the imaginable of interior dissent alongside increasing outer resistance.

These challenges are compounded by changing realities connected the ground. Somaliland nary longer exercises power implicit each the territory it claims arsenic the erstwhile British Somaliland. In July 2025, a caller national subordinate state, the Northeast State of Somalia, was established successful ample swathes of this territory and swiftly pledged allegiance to the Federal Government of Somalia. Its emergence has reinforced Somalia’s territorial integrity and further weakened Somaliland’s bid for planetary recognition.

At the diplomatic level, Israel’s determination has triggered a question of planetary enactment for Somalia. Key determination and planetary organisations, including IGAD, the African Union, the Arab League, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, the European Union and India, person each reaffirmed Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Even the United States, Israel’s closest ally, joined different members of the UN Security Council successful restating its committedness to Somalia’s unity. What was intended arsenic a breakthrough for Somaliland has alternatively strengthened Somalia’s diplomatic position, exposing the paradox of designation successful an progressively fragmented planetary system.

Unless Israel succeeds successful persuading US President Donald Trump to recognise Somaliland, an uphill task fixed the countervailing value of the Saudi-led alliance, hopes of a wider domino effect look to person reached a dormant end.

When designation backfires

Israel’s designation of Somaliland is not an isolated enactment but portion of a broader strategy, the alleged Axis of Secession, which exploits fragility successful war-torn states from Libya and Yemen to Sudan, Somalia and Syria. By empowering breakaway regions, Israel, with the backing of cardinal determination partners, particularly the United Arab Emirates, has sought to reshape the determination order. Instead, it has provoked determined resistance.

Ethiopia’s aborted Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland, China’s assertive defence of Somalia’s sovereignty, and the deepening rupture betwixt Saudi Arabia and the UAE each underscore the volatility and limits of this approach. For Somaliland, the determination to necktie its designation strategy to Israel has backfired, expanding its diplomatic isolation portion interior absorption grows and territorial power weakens.

For Somalia, the acquisition is arsenic clear. Its endurance arsenic a sovereign authorities present depends connected urgency, interior cohesion and steadfast alignment with the emerging Middle East confederation that has positioned itself against fragmentation and secession. Far from advancing secessionist ambitions, Israel’s designation of Somaliland has reinforced the planetary statement astir Somalia’s territorial integrity. It has besides exposed the limits of designation arsenic a geopolitical instrumentality successful an progressively fractured planetary order.

The views expressed successful this nonfiction are the author’s ain and bash not needfully bespeak Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.