Will the Russia-Ukraine war end in 2026?

Kyiv, Ukraine – Russian soldiers are terrified of Ukrainians, says Vasily, a burly serviceman limping uneasily connected the cobblestones of Kyiv’s Sophia Square, wherever Ukraine’s largest Christmas histrion stands

“I’ve jumped into their trenches. They’re truly acrophobic of us,” helium told Al Jazeera.

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However, their fearfulness does not mean that Kyiv tin dictate the end-of-war presumption arsenic Russia has much servicemen, a stronger system and a overmuch bigger warfare thorax – portion Ukraine remains outmanned and outgunned, helium said.

“When I spot the force astatine 800 metres, outcry into the vigor that I spot a vessel and springiness its coordinates, but they say, ‘Hold on’, I realise that we simply person thing to onslaught it with,” Vasily said, referring to the dire shortage of artillery shells portion helium was connected the beforehand line, earlier losing his near ft to a landmine successful 2023.

Vassily remained successful work and asked to withhold his past sanction successful accordance with wartime regulations.

‘One can’t anticipation for the afloat end’

A four-star wide thinks, however, that the lone realistic accomplishment could beryllium a “pause” successful the warfare that volition participate its 5th twelvemonth successful February 2026.

“With specified an assertive neighbour [as Russia], 1 can’t anticipation for the afloat extremity of the war,” Ihor Romanenko, erstwhile lawman caput of Ukraine’s wide unit of equipped forces, told Al Jazeera.

“There won’t beryllium bid with Russia until we liberate the lands wrong Ukraine’s [post-Soviet] 1991 borders,” helium said.

And if Moscow breaches the ceasefire pause, Kyiv would person to “stop the Russians connected the beforehand line” done a large bolstering of its subject potential, helium said.

Kyiv would request to present cosmopolitan and “fair” mobilisation without immoderate exemptions, further boost home arms manufacturing, prioritise wartime needs successful its economical decisions, and present stricter martial law, helium said.

This year, Ukraine’s military-industrial analyzable has provided up to 40 percent of what the equipped forces request – a large boost from 15 to 20 percent successful 2022.

Western allies supply the remaining 60 percent – and their further assistance should beryllium “decisive and fast”, Romanenko said.

Ukrainian servicemen permission their dugout with a Darts middle-range onslaught unmanned aerial conveyance earlier launching it towards Russian troops successful the Donetsk region, Ukraine, December 16, 2025 [Sofiia Gatilova/Reuters]

“A model of opportunity” to motion a bid woody whitethorn look successful the 2nd fractional of 2026 – if Russia does not win successful breaching the beforehand enactment and advancing rapidly and realises that Kyiv tin tummy the warfare of attrition, different expert says.

“Everything volition beryllium connected the Kremlin’s and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s idiosyncratic readiness to agree,” Volodymyr Fesenko, caput of the Kyiv-based Penta deliberation tank, told Al Jazeera.

If the war’s “dead-end” improvement becomes wide to Moscow adjacent year, past determination is anticipation to scope a bid woody by precocious 2025, helium said.

And adjacent if Putin agrees, it would instrumentality months to robust retired and “connect” the warring sides’ versions of a bid deal, Fesenko said.

Ukraine whitethorn person to crook to the White House’s demands to cede the Kyiv-controlled portion of the Donetsk region, including respective heavy fortified cities and towns, successful speech for Russia’s withdrawal from 3 Ukrainian regions successful the eastbound and northbound – otherwise, the warfare volition spell connected into 2027, helium said.

(Al Jazeera)

There are bigger planetary factors that power the war’s imaginable end.

In 2026, the precise explanation of the corporate West volition alteration aft Washington’s withdrawal from the “global policeman’s” relation and the extremity of the “Western hegemony” implicit the remainder of the world, according to Kyiv-based expert Ihar Tyshkevich.

A genuinely “multi-polar” satellite is emerging arsenic China boosts its planetary clout and domination successful Asia, but inactive cannot afloat situation Washington’s domination, helium told a quality league successful Kyiv connected Monday.

This process volition besides trigger the “erosion” of planetary instrumentality that volition power Ukraine’s position, helium said.

For Ukraine, the worst-case improvement is simply a “Finnish scenario,” Tyshkevich said, referring to the 1939 Finnish-Soviet war, erstwhile Moscow tried to reconquer its tsarist-era province.

Even though Soviet forces suffered dense losses that prompted Nazi Germany’s penetration of the USSR successful 1941, Moscow chopped disconnected a tenth of Finland’s territory and forced Helsinki to recognise it.

In Ukraine’s case, the “Finnish scenario” volition mean Kyiv’s designation of Moscow-occupied regions arsenic portion of Russia.

Tyshkevych called different imaginable script “Georgian” successful notation to the 2008 warfare betwixt Russia and Georgia, erstwhile Moscow defeated smaller Georgian forces and “recognised” 2 breakaway regions – South Ossetia and Abkhazia – arsenic “independent.”

A Ukrainian warfare seasoned competes with the kettlebell successful the ‘Games for Heroes’ cross-fit contention of subject amputees successful Kharkiv, Ukraine, September 12, 2025 [Thomas Peter/Reuters]

For Ukraine, the Georgian script means nary power implicit occupied areas, but Kyiv’s refusal to recognise them arsenic Russia’s.

A third, “interim” script means the warfare is frozen and talks spell on, helium said.

There is lone 1 script of the war’s end, according to Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher with Germany’s Bremen University.

Ukraine would beryllium “pushed out” of the remaining one-fifth of the southeastern Donetsk portion – oregon would person to permission it voluntarily and recognise the nonaccomplishment of 90 percent of the neighbouring Zaporizhia portion and 15 percent of Dnipropetrovsk that Russia presently controls, helium said.

‘Donetsk was the root of our problems’

As Western unit successful the mode of sanctions connected Russia is “weak”, due to the fact that excessively galore nations are funny successful bypassing them and trading with Moscow, the Kremlin has capable resources to proceed the warfare for astatine slightest different 2 years, helium said.

In turn, Ukraine has the resources to resist, but its “corrupt and cowardly” authorities is not susceptible of mobilising capable manpower, helium said.

As a result, Ukrainian forces dilatory retreat successful cardinal directions arsenic Western mediators cannot person Russia to stop, helium said.

“There are, however, chances that Trump and his medication volition either unit Zelenskyy to permission Donetsk oregon to clasp a wartime [presidential] vote and truly alteration the squad that rules Ukraine,” Mitrokhin told Al Jazeera.

Meanwhile, galore mean Ukrainians are increasing wearier of the war, Russian shelling, blackouts and an economical downturn.

“Donetsk was the root of our problems. Let Russia person it and wage tens of billions to reconstruct it,” Taras Tymoshchuk, a 63-year-old erstwhile economist, told Al Jazeera, referring to a Moscow-backed separatist uprising successful Donetsk and neighbouring Luhansk successful 2014. “I privation to aftermath up due to the fact that the birds are singing, not due to the fact that I perceive Russian drones and missiles.”