Aleppo clashes highlight challenge of SDF integration for Syria

The outbreak of clashes betwixt the Syrian service and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has highlighted the governmental and information challenges the state continues to look much than a twelvemonth aft the autumn of erstwhile President Bashar al-Assad.

The warring successful Aleppo, which has killed astatine slightest 22 radical this week, brought to the forefront cardinal tensions betwixt Damascus and the SDF – some of which are backed by the United States.

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The SDF and the Syrian authorities had signed an agreement to integrate the Syrian-dominated forces into a authorities instauration successful March of past year. But small advancement has been made connected that front, and the sporadic unit betwixt the 2 sides turned into aggravated warring this week.

A truce to halt the clashes was announced connected Friday, but it appears to beryllium already unravelling. Analysts pass that without a broad solution to the tensions, much warring is each but inevitable.

While it appears that determination is nary home oregon planetary appetite for an all-out warfare successful Syria, experts accidental that with the merger of the SDF – which controls ample parts of northeast Syria – into the authorities stalled, the menace of renewed unit persists.

“I don’t deliberation there’s a batch of planetary involvement successful large warring astatine the moment, particularly from the US broadside — truthful that could assistance tamp things down,” said Aron Lund, a chap astatine Century International.

“It’s acold from over, however. All the main issues stay unresolved, and neither broadside is consenting to compromise connected fundamentals, truthful we’re going to spot much clashes eventually.”

The clashes

This week’s warring has displaced tens of thousands of radical successful the predominantly Kurdish Sheikh Maqsoud, Ashrafieh and Bani Zeid neighbourhoods, with some sides accusing each different of initiating the violence.

Early connected Friday, the Syrian Ministry of Defence announced a six-hour impermanent ceasefire successful the 3 neighbourhoods, which was aboriginal extended to springiness the SDF fighters much clip to leave.

Syria’s Defence Ministry said SDF fighters based successful Aleppo’s neighbourhoods volition beryllium redeployed to areas eastbound of the Euphrates River.

However, ⁠Kurdish councils that tally Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh said successful a connection that calls to permission were “a telephone to surrender” and that Kurdish forces would alternatively “defend their neighbourhoods”.

The warring casts its shadiness implicit the March 2025 woody betwixt Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s authorities and the SDF to bring the Kurdish-led forces nether authorities institutions.

The statement provides for a nationwide ceasefire, SDF practice with the authorities successful confronting pro-al-Assad equipped groups, and ceremonial designation of the Kurds arsenic an integral portion of Syria, with guaranteed citizenship and law rights.

It besides places each borderline crossings with Iraq and Turkiye, on with airports and oilfields successful northeastern Syria, nether the authorization of the cardinal government.

[Al Jazeera]

The SDF

So far, nary meaningful advancement has been made towards integration. Both sides stay astatine likelihood implicit a fig of issues, including the process and operation of integration, for example, whether the SDF would articulation arsenic a unified bloc oregon dissolve into idiosyncratic recruits.

A gathering connected January 4 betwixt elder SDF commanders and authorities officials concluded with nary “tangible” outcomes according to authorities media, with talks suspended pending further negotiation.

The SDF roseate to prominence arsenic Syria began to fragment nether the strain of civilian unrest successful 2011.

It was officially established successful 2015, with the People’s Protection Units (YPG), a Kurdish militia linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), forming the bulk of its warring force.

Despite the PKK being listed arsenic a “terrorist” radical by the US and astir Western countries, Washington rapidly allied itself with the SDF successful the combat against ISIL (ISIS).

The radical continues to beryllium backed by a US-led planetary conjugation and retains precocious instrumentality and grooming that were provided by the US and its partners.

It is estimated to person 50,000 to 90,000 well-trained, battle-hardened fighters.

But Turkiye, which struggled with a decades-long PKK rebellion and attacks, views the SDF arsenic a menace to its security.

In the caller clashes, authoritative Syrian authorities media outlets person referred to the SDF arsenic “PKK terrorists”.

Regional influences

With Turkiye, a NATO state of the US, distrustful of the SDF, the country’s defence ministry has said it is acceptable to “support” Syria successful its combat against the group.

Ankara, an state of al-Sharaa’s government, has criticised Washington for years implicit its enactment for the SDF and launched respective subject operations successful bluish Syria to propulsion the radical disconnected its border.

The intensifying rivalry betwixt Turkiye and Israel has besides raised concerns that the Israeli authorities whitethorn enactment its value down the SDF to supply a counterweight to Ankara’s power successful Syria.

Israel has already intervened successful the interior Syrian struggle erstwhile it bombed Damascus successful July successful enactment of Druze fighters battling authorities forces successful the southbound of the country.

The Israeli subject has besides expanded its concern beyond the Golan Heights, and it has been establishing checkpoints and abducting people heavy wrong Syria’s territory.

The US, which has troops stationed successful eastbound Syria, is allied with each the parties involved: Turkiye, Israel, the Syrian authorities and the SDF.

And so, Washington has been trying to mediate betwixt each the sides. Last week, Syria and Israel agreed to found an intelligence-sharing mechanics aft US-brokered talks.

US envoy Tom Barrack has urged the “utmost restraint” aft the clashes successful Aleppo and hailed the short-lived ceasefire.

“Together with our allies and liable determination partners, we basal acceptable to facilitate efforts to de-escalate tensions and to spend Syria and its radical a renewed accidental to take the way of dialog implicit division,” Barrack said successful a connection calling for de-escalation from each sides.

“Let america prioritize the speech of ideas and constructive proposals implicit the speech of fire. The aboriginal of Aleppo, and of Syria arsenic a whole, belongs to its radical and indispensable beryllium shaped done peaceful means, not violence.”

US ‘can bash the most’

Nanar Hawach, elder Syria expert astatine the International Crisis Group, said with some the authorities and SDF maintaining relationships with the US, it could bounds the hazard of the March agreement’s full collapse, saying it keeps a “ceiling connected escalation”.

“American engagement does not warrant resolution, but it constrains the scope of outcomes and keeps some parties tethered to a negotiating model neither tin spend to abandon,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Reporting from Damascus, Al Jazeera’s Ayman Oghanna said Washington tin “do the most” to boost talks betwixt the Syrian authorities and the SDF.

“The US has enjoyed a beardown narration with the SDF for implicit a decade. The US helped physique up and bid the SDF, it fought alongside the SDF, and 1,000 US troops stay successful SDF territory wherever they enactment intimately unneurotic successful the effort to eradicate ISIL from Syria,” Oghanna said.

“But the US has besides precocious strengthened its ties with Damascus.”

What comes next?

Rob Geist Pinfold, an planetary information lecturer astatine King’s College London, said the impermanent ceasefire successful Aleppo simply pushes “the much analyzable issues” down the road.

“Yes, we’ve got a impermanent ceasefire … which makes everyone’s lives better, but this means that we are arguably further distant from getting to a broad deal.”

For his part, Lund, the analyst, warned that much clashes could pb to a wider escalation.

“Unless this concern is managed well, it could punctual overseas interventions and worsen the already atrocious narration betwixt Israel and Turkiye,” Lund told Al Jazeera.

Some analysts person said the cardinal is much talks and little violence.

Armenak Tokmajyan, a non-resident student astatine the Carnegie Middle East Center, argued that subject unit unsocial volition not resoluteness Syria’s fragmentation.

“Reintegration … cannot hap conscionable with force,” helium told Al Jazeera, stressing the request for a multi-pronged strategy, including an inclusive nationalist framework.

“A batch of these equipped groups don’t privation to laic down their weapons due to the fact that they don’t cognize what this authorities volition look like,” helium said.